How Polarized is Canada... And Should We Worry?
“Polarization.”
It’s the political chattering classes favourite new word.
If you want to sound wise these days, just blame the crazy state of the world on polarization. If you want to sound really wise, say that fighting polarization needs to be part of the political agenda and be sure to blame social media and Donald Trump (although not necessarily in that order) for the current chaos.
Despite it being the new trendy word in political circles, how many of us really understand what the term means? Is Canada really that polarized? Should we worry?
These were the topics I discussed with political scientist Eric Merkley on a recent episode of Disagreeing Well: The Podcast about Polarization. Merkley has literally written the book on polarization, recently publishing Polarization, Eh? The Causes and Consequences of Affective Polarization in Canada.
What did Merkley find? In short, Canada is becoming more polarized. Although we are not as bad as our neighbours to the south - there are plenty of warning signs about the direction we are heading.
Merkley’s focus is on a particular type of polarization – affective polarization. It’s more than coming to a debate holding strong views, it’s about how we feel about others involved. We tend to really like our side and really dislike the other side – even hate them. We don’t simply believe that they are wrong, we hold them in disdain.
Merkley’s research found that Canada’s political system is getting increasingly “affectively” polarized between Conservative supporters on one side and Liberals and NDP supporters on the other. Surprisingly, he found that this trend goes back to the 1980s – long before Donald Trump and social media.
The reasons are complex. On the positive side, politics in Canada has grown much more ideological. Our mainline political parties have stopped rushing to the centre and many people are genuinely making their voting choice based on the different policy approaches of parties. Unfortunately, we haven’t been stopping there. Instead of trying to talk through our policy differences with the other side, we dismiss their views and paint them as misguided, stupid, morally bad or all of the above.
To make matters worse, Merkley found that we tend to have exaggerated beliefs about our opponents – who they are and what they believe. For example, we overestimate the number of Conservatives who are rich, live in rural areas or are Evangelical Christians. On the progressive side, we often assume higher numbers of Liberal and NDP supporters are members of the LGBTQ community, racialized, lower-income or urban.
This misperception extends to policy beliefs. Contrary to the popular stereotypes that many of us hold, most Conservatives actually care about the environment, helping those in need, maintaining quality government services and welcoming newcomers. And most Liberal and NDP supporters desire a strong economy, keeping a check on government spending and maintaining a responsible immigration policy.
Merkley’s most troubling finding concerns how easily we forgive our side when it crosses over the line. Although we would be outraged if a political party we opposed cracked down on protests, ran roughshod over parliament or ignored the courts, we are much more forgiving when it’s our team undermining democracy.
For more on this trend – look southwards.
And what about our favourite villain – no, not him - social media. Rather than identifying it as the primary source of polarization, Merkley sees its role as amplifying the most extreme voices and creating a distorted picture for politicians, journalists and the public about the views of mainstream Canadians.
Are there any solutions?
Merkley admits that he hasn’t found a silver bullet. He does suggest some changes to our political system that might help. Our current political fundraising rules, for example, encourage parties to go after small donations on a continuous basis. Unfortunately, the easiest way to get supporters to pony up is to throw them some red meat and make them think that the other side is not only evil but intent on destroying the country – fuelling polarization.
Merkley’s research puts much of the blame on those at the top – political elites – but there are things all of us can do. We need to understand, Merkley argues, that “you are seeing the worst of the other side because that is what the immediate environment encourages you to see.” His advice is to enter political discussions with “humility and respect”.
There is also our new political reality. Carney’s big tent approach to governing may be lowering the temperature a bit while Donald Trump’s attacks on Canada have fostered a renewed sense of unity that might help.
That said, there is no doubt that polarization is here and undermining Canadian politics. If we want to address it, we need to understand it much better and credit should be given to Merkley for providing such an important analysis.